Worldwide terrorist response?
Could Iran's response reach well outside the Middle East? The probable answer is yes.
Security analysts with the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Federal Bureau of Investigation, Britain's Secret Intelligence Service (MI-6) and the Security Service (MI-5) have been joined by those from the Dutch Algemene Inlichtingen en Veiligheidsdienst; the French Service de Documentation Exterieure et de Contre-Espionnage and the Directorate of Territorial Security; the German Federal Intelligence Service; Israel's Mossad and the Israel Defense Forces' Directorate of Military Intelligence; and others from around the world in sophisticated intelligence-sharing networks. Conferences and liaison meetings are constantly being held to try to unravel the true nature and extent of any possible Iranian terrorist threat and how best to counter it.
What many in the US intelligence community appear determined to prove is a direct link between Iran and Islamic terrorism. Tehran's extensive intelligence services have been active in both Muslim and non-Muslim nations since the early 1980s.
Iran's intelligence-run cells are believed to have links with a network of contacts across three continents. Sabotage and subversion experts from Iran are believed to be cooperating with both Cuba and Venezuela for operations in Washington's own back yard. Iran has also apparently established similar cells and cooperation in Sudan, Somalia and Yemen.
Significantly, in European Muslim areas such as Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo and Chechnya, a highly successful relationship with the largely Sunni al-Qaeda has developed. Shi'ites and Sunnis have apparently buried their religious differences in favor of finding common cause against a joint enemy, the United States.
Iran and al-Qaeda
In the pragmatic world of international terrorism, religious or political differences can be ignored when the opportunity to join forces against a hated enemy appears. Iran provided a safe haven and an escape route for hundreds of al-Qaeda and many of its senior leadership in the aftermath of the collapse of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in late 2001 and has cooperated closely with al-Qaeda in support of Muslim fighters on numerous occasions.
The Islamic government in Tehran does appear convinced that a US and/or Israeli attack will come eventually and is therefore pushing ahead rapidly in developing new allies, in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America in particular. These links are seen both as building a possible deterrent and as an effective response in the event of the destruction of its nuclear facilities.
'Godfathers' of 'terrorism'
The Islamic Republic has promoted fundamentalist ideology to expand its influence throughout the Muslim world. The Iranians are suspected of having a long track record of supporting Islamic jihad in its many forms, the assassination of exiled members of Iran's opposition, and creating what might be described as an Iranian Foreign Legion in the shape of Hezbollah and similar groups.
Iran is suspected of having instigated or committed many acts of terrorism, including the twin attacks carried out by their proteges in Lebanon, Hezbollah, on military barracks in Beirut on October 23, 1983, which left 241 US and 58 French soldiers dead.
Iran may well have been the real culprit behind the destruction of Pan Am 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, in December 1988, carried out in revenge for the destruction of an Iranian airliner over the Persian Gulf by a missile fired by the USS Vincennes in July 1988, killing all 290 on board the aircraft.
It is probable that a hapless scapegoat for Lockerbie was found in Libya, because though the more likely instigator of this outrage was Iran or even Syria, both these nations were apparently required as members of the "coalition" against Saddam Hussein's Iraq in 1990, and Libya was not.
The Saudi investigation into the 1995 Khobar Towers bombing, which again targeted US forces, is believed to have implicated senior members of Iran's intelligence apparatus. Iranian Revolutionary Guards are now deeply involved in manipulating the sectarian violence in southern Iraq and continue to play a significant part in Hezbollah's conflict with Israel.
The only apparent change in Tehran's recent tactics has been to attempt to distance itself publicly from its illegal actions. The Iranian Republic is well aware of the negative image created by international accusations of being a state actually sponsoring terrorism.
Useful proxies
Iran has been careful to "outsource" its activities using such proxy organizations as Hezbollah. Iranian agents now rarely take an active part in terror attacks; instead, terrorist groups active in the target country are trained by Iran's Revolutionary Guards and commissioned to carry out acts against common enemies.
An example of this tactic is the bombing of a US Air Force building in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, in 1996 that killed 19 American personnel. Again significantly, the indictment handed down in June 2002 claimed that the attack was carried out by an organization called the Saudi Hezbollah under the direction of "elements in the Iranian government".
Indeed, some observers go as far as to suggest that Iranian revolutionary-warfare instructors are engaged in building up a network of suicide bombers, saboteurs and assassins to attack US and Israeli targets.
Assassination has also played a significant part in the Islamic Republic's campaign against Iranian dissidents. One source stated, "Most of the victims of more than 450 listed terrorist operations by the [Iranian] regime on foreign soil during the past two decades [were] Iranian political opponents. Figures such as Professor Kazem Rajavi, the elder brother of Iranian resistance leader Massoud Rajavi; Mohammad-Hossein Naghdi, former diplomat and representative of the Iranian resistance in Italy ... Abdul-Rahman Qassemlou, secretary general of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan are part of the list."
Iranian intelligence and terrorism
The coordinating group behind Iran's terrorist activities and its potential ability to strike back in the event of an attack is known as the Committee for Special Operations. It consists of the president; influential clerics; senior officers from the Revolutionary Guards; the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; and, most important, MOIS (the Ministry of Intelligence and Security).
MOIS is ranked by many experts as one of the largest and most effective intelligence agencies in the Middle East. However, it is a ministry purely in name, as it operates under the direct supervision of the Supreme Leader. It is not accountable to either the cabinet or Parliament. MOIS works in coordination with the Foreign Ministry in operations abroad, making particular use of Iranian embassies, cultural organizations and business enterprises worldwide as centers for gathering intelligence and supporting terrorist activities.
MOIS controls the activities of the Vezarat-e Ettela'at va Amniat-e Keshvar (VEVAK), which is responsible for intelligence collection to support terrorist operations and for liaison activities with supported groups and Muslim fundamentalist movements such as Islamic Jihad and even al-Qaeda.
The VEVAK special operations department has responsibility for conducting terrorist operations in support of Iran's direct national interests and against Iranian dissidents in exile. VEVAK has assisted in the training of selected Bosnian Muslim army units since 1993. Along with both al-Qaeda and, strangely, the CIA, it played a major role in supporting the Muslim Albanian Kosovo Liberation Army separatists in the Yugoslav province of Kosovo during 1998-99.
The IRGC (Pasdaran-e Inqilab)
The Revolutionary Guards' "Special Services" or Department of Security and Foreign Intelligence provides funds and arms to Islamic groups around the world. It provides support for both the Hezbollah and Hamas movements. Importantly, it also is in overall control of the al-Quds (Jerusalem) groups. Al-Quds has reportedly some 50,000 highly motivated fighters, including some 12,000 or more Arabic-speaking Iranians, Afghans, Iraqis, Lebanese Shi'ites and North Africans trained in Iran or during the Afghan wars.
Al-Quds may prove to be the most significant of Iran's possible military options for retaliation. It has helped Hezbollah establish armed groups in Lebanon, Iraqi Kurdistan, Jordan, Somalia, Sudan and Palestine and Islamic Jihad militants in Egypt, Turkey, Chechnya, Kosovo and many other Muslim countries and regions.
Al-Quds is in effect the long arm of the Islamic Revolution abroad. To Abbas Milani, director of Iranian studies at Stanford University, it "is the hand-picked elite of an already elite ideological army".
Some observers believe it is also behind the creation of large numbers of deep-cover terrorist cell networks in Europe and North America, and in pro-Western countries. It is these cells that will prove almost impossible for Western security services to identify and destroy; it is these cells that could cause immense structural damage to highly industrialized economies.
Not just terrorism
The danger to the United States and Europe extends well beyond the threat posed by Tehran's terrorist networks. As one expert observer pointed out, "Iran now exercises tremendous economic and political influence through its oil production, its control of the Persian Gulf's strategic Strait of Hormuz, and its growing influence in OPEC [the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries], the United Nations, the Non-Aligned Movement, the Economic Cooperation Organization, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the World Islamic Council."
The source of Iran's growing influence, oil and gas, is likely to remain firmly off any future US target list. The consequences for worldwide economic stability caused by the loss of Iran's energy production could be staggering.
Whatever happens over the next few months, short of an unexpected collapse of Islamic power in Tehran, Iran will remain a divisive and powerful economic and religious influence in the Middle East for generations to come.
Despite Washington's undoubted and overwhelming military superiority, a thoughtful observer might be moved to suggest that it may still be wise for the US to look before it leaps: those who meddle in Middle Eastern affairs rarely find it benefits them in the long run.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IE05Ak04.html
siendo uno de los ejemplos de estudio en las unidades antiterroristas de todo el mundo de cómo no hay que dar tiempo a los terroristas a que aniquilen a sus rehenes.
